RIM shares climb as investors bet on new BlackBerry






TORONTO (Reuters) – Shares of Research In Motion rallied on Friday as investors positioned themselves ahead of the launch of its new make-or-break BlackBerry 10 smartphones at the end of the month.


Morningstar analyst Brian Colello did not see any one news story driving the stock, which climbed steadily through much of the day. The new phones are to be formally unveiled on January 30.






“The stock has been extremely volatile, based on BlackBerry 10 rumors and the potential for success in the market,” said Colello.


Several blog posts published on Friday showed purportedly leaked photos of what could be the new phones, and a number of tech sites confirmed that Sprint Nextel Corp would carry BlackBerry 10.


“Sprint plans to bring BlackBerry 10 to our customers later this year. We will share more details soon,” Mark Elliot, a spokesman for the U.S. carrier, said in an email.


Earlier this week, executives at Verizon Communications, AT&T Inc and T-Mobile USA all confirmed they would carry the smartphones, and said they are looking forward to the new devices.


“There are, I think, good indications that they’re going to get a seat at all the tables that matter,” said IDC analyst John Jackson, who called carrier support “necessary, but not sufficient” to ensure the success of BlackBerry 10.


Throughout the autumn of 2012, RIM’s stock rose as investors grew more optimistic about BlackBerry 10. Morningstar’s Colello said the market went from pricing in no chance of success, to betting on at least some chance of success for the new products.


But the rally broke off after RIM reported earnings in December, revealing that it would roll out a new fee structure for its services segment which some fear could put pressure on the high-margin business.


The new line’s success is crucial to the future of RIM, which has lost ground to competitors such as Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics, and in December reported its first-ever decline in total subscribers.


BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis said the news that all four major U.S. carriers would offer BlackBerry 10 was likely lifting the stock, along with Nokia’s stronger-than-expected quarterly results — a sign that Google Inc’s Android smartphones have not completely taken over its market.


“The smartphone market is one of the most robust, largest markets in the world … it’s also dynamic,” said Gillis. “The winners and losers are going to be shifting. That said, it’s a difficult road the company is facing.”


RIM’s Nasdaq-listed shares were up 13.2 percent at $ 13.49. Shares jumped 12.6 percent to C$ 13.27 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. That more than doubled the price since the low of C$ 6.10 it touched in September. By late afternoon, RIM was the day’s most heavily-traded stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange.


(Additional reporting by Nicola Leske in New York; Editing by Marguerita Choy and Alden Bentley)


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Broncos, Ravens tied at 35 heading into OT


DENVER (AP) — The Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens went into overtime in their AFC divisional playoff tied at 35 after Joe Flacco threw a 70-yard touchdown pass to Jacoby Jones over Tony Carter and Rahim Moore with 31 seconds left in regulation Saturday.


Leading 35-28 with 1:15 left, the Broncos punted to Jones, the Pro Bowl returner who was overshadowed all day by Trindon Holliday, and he made a fair catch at the 23 with 1:09 to go.


On third-and-3 from his own 30, Flacco wound up and found Jones down the right sideline for the stunning score. Carter let Jones go and Moore tried to go up to bat it down, but mistimed his jump.


The Broncos got the ball at their 20 with 30 seconds left, but Peyton Manning took a knee and this game went into overtime. Denver also went into overtime in the playoffs last year, when Tim Tebow hit Demaryius Thomas for an 80-yard TD on the first play to beat Pittsburgh.


Manning atoned for a fumble that led to a score by Baltimore by driving Denver 88 yards in 10 plays and hitting Thomas from 17 yards out for the go-ahead score that broke a 28-all tie midway through the fourth quarter.


And Holliday became the first player in NFL playoff history to return both a punt and a kickoff for scores.


The Broncos (13-3) were trying to avoid becoming yet another No. 1 seed to lose in the divisional round. Since 2005, eight of the 14 top-seeded teams lost their first game in the playoffs, four in each conference.


They breezed past the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore on Dec. 16 after racing to a 31-3 lead but this one was going down to the wire — and beyond — something the Broncos didn't do at all during their 11-game winning streak that they brought into the playoffs.


Holliday, the NFL's shortest — and quite possibly fastest — player, followed an amazing block by Jacob Hester to return the second-half kickoff 104 yards to put Denver ahead 28-21. That was 2 yards longer than the record set in 2010 by Atlanta's Eric Weems.


In the first half, Holliday got the scoring started when he fielded Sam Koch's punt, broke one tackle and raced down the Ravens' sideline for a 90-yard TD return, avoiding the punter as he zipped into the end zone. The previous longest TD on a punt return in a playoff game was Jermaine Lewis' 88-yarder for Baltimore in 2001.


Manning, 0-3 in playoff games below 40 degrees, wore gloves on each hand in the cold. He was sacked and coughed up the ball at his 37 late in the third quarter, Paul Kruger recovering for Baltimore.


Ray Rice carried five times for 37 yards, taking it in from a yard out with 20 seconds left in the quarter to tie it at 28.


The 13-degree temperature at kickoff made this the coldest playoff game ever played in Denver. The wind chill was 2. The only colder game played in Denver was against San Diego on Dec. 10, 1972, when the temperature was 9 degrees.


Holliday also returned a punt and a kickoff for scores in the regular season, and his big day came just an hour after NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell reiterated his intention to consider this offseason the idea of abolishing kickoffs altogether for safety's sake.


Goodell said he realizes it's an exciting play but worries that players will keep getting head injuries.


The Ravens countered Holliday's speed with Torrey Smith's. The Baltimore receiver breezed past Champ Bailey for two long touchdowns in the first half, including one just before halftime that tied it at 21.


Smith had just two catches in the first half, but they covered 91 yards and both went for scores.


He sped past Bailey for a 59-yard TD in the first quarter and then beat him down the sideline for a 32-yard TD catch 36 seconds left before the break that capped a three-play, 58-yard drive that began after Matt Prater botched a 52-yard field-goal attempt that would have given Denver a double-digit lead.


Running back Knowshon Moreno's first touchdown catch of the season, a 13-yard grab in tight coverage by linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, had given the Broncos a 21-14 lead. Moreno later left with a knee injury.


Manning, the league's only four-time MVP, had lost his three previous playoff games below 40 degrees, all while playing for the Indianapolis Colts, who released him last year after a series of neck operations. Manning had a stellar bounce-back season in Denver, throwing for 4,659 yards and a team-record 37 TDs.


Wearing gloves on both hands for the first time in his career — the one on the right hand as much a concession to the altered feel of his grip following the four neck surgeries as it was for the wintry weather, Manning threw a 15-yard TD toss to Brandon Stokley to tie it at 14.


Baltimore tied it at 7 when Smith got behind Bailey and hauled in Flacco's 59-yard touchdown toss.


Forty-two seconds later, cornerback Corey Graham picked off a Manning pass that deflected off receiver Eric Decker and returned it 39 yards for the score — and the Broncos trailed for the first time since Dec. 2 against Tampa Bay.


___


Online: http://pro32.ap.org/poll and http://twitter.com/AP_NFL


___


Follow AP Pro Football Writer Arnie Stapleton on Twitter: http://twitter.com/arniestapleton


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City Room: Cuomo Declares Public Health Emergency Over Flu Outbreak

With the nation in the grip of a severe influenza outbreak that has seen deaths reach epidemic levels, New York State declared a public health emergency on Saturday, making access to vaccines more easily available.

There have been nearly 20,000 cases of flu reported across the state so far this season, officials said. Last season, 4,400 positive laboratory tests were reported.

“We are experiencing the worst flu season since at least 2009, and influenza activity in New York State is widespread, with cases reported in all 57 counties and all five boroughs of New York City,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said in a statement.

Under the order, pharmacists will be allowed to administer flu vaccinations to patients between 6 months and 18 years old, temporarily suspending a state law that prohibits pharmacists from administering immunizations to children.

While children and older people tend to be the most likely to become seriously ill from the flu, Mr. Cuomo urged all New Yorkers to get vaccinated.

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta said that deaths from the flu had reached epidemic levels, with at least 20 children having died nationwide. Officials cautioned that deaths from pneumonia and the flu typically reach epidemic levels for a week or two every year. The severity of the outbreak will be determined by how long the death toll remains high or if it climbs higher.

There was some evidence that caseloads may be peaking, federal officials said on Friday.

In New York City, public health officials announced on Thursday that flu-related illnesses had reached epidemic levels, and they joined the chorus of authorities urging people to get vaccinated.

“It’s a bad year,” the city’s health commissioner, Dr. Thomas A. Farley, told reporters on Thursday. “We’ve got lots of flu, it’s mainly type AH3N2, which tends to be a little more severe. So we’re seeing plenty of cases of flu and plenty of people sick with flu. Our message for any people who are listening to this is it’s still not too late to get your flu shot.”

There has been a spike in the number of people going to emergency rooms over the past two weeks with flulike symptoms – including fever, fatigue and coughing – Dr. Farley said.

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Mr. Cuomo made a public display of getting shots this past week.

In a briefing with reporters on Friday, officials from the C.D.C. said that this year’s vaccine was effective in 62 percent of cases.

As officials have stepped up their efforts encouraging vaccinations, there have been scattered reports of shortages. But officials said plenty of the vaccine was available.

According to the C.D.C., makers of the flu vaccine produced about 135 million doses for this year. As of early this month, 128 million doses had been distributed. While that would not be enough for every American, only 37 percent of the population get a flu shot each year.

Federal health officials said they would be happy if that number rose to 50 percent, which would mean that there would be more than enough vaccine for anyone who wanted to be immunized.

Two other diseases – norovirus and whooping cough – are also widespread this winter and are contributing to the number of people getting sick.

The flu can resemble a cold, though the symptoms come on more rapidly and are more severe.

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Treasury Will Not Mint $1 Trillion Coin to Raise Debt Ceiling





WASHINGTON — The Treasury Department said Saturday that it will not mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin to head off an imminent battle with Congress over raising the government’s borrowing limit.


“Neither the Treasury Department nor the Federal Reserve believes that the law can or should be used to facilitate the production of platinum coins for the purpose of avoiding an increase in the debt limit,” Anthony Coley, a Treasury spokesman, said in a written statement.


The Obama administration has indicated that the only way for the country to avoid a cash-management crisis as soon as next month is for Congress to raise the “debt ceiling,” which is the statutory limit on government borrowing. The cap is $16.4 trillion.


“There are only two options to deal with the debt limit: Congress can pay its bills, or it can fail to act and put the nation into default,” Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, said in a statement. “Congress needs to do its job.”


In recent weeks, some Republicans have indicated that they would not agree to raise the debt limit unless Democrats agreed to make cuts to entitlement programs like Social Security.


The White House has said it would not negotiate spending cuts in exchange for Congressional authority to borrow more, and it has insisted that Congress raise the ceiling as a matter of course, to cover expenses already authorized by Congress. In broader fiscal negotiations, it has said it would not agree to spending cuts without commensurate tax increases.


The idea of minting a trillion-dollar coin drew wide if puzzling attention recently after some bloggers and economic commentators had suggested it as an alternative to involving Congress.


By virtue of an obscure law meant to apply to commemorative coins, the Treasury secretary could order the production of a high-denomination platinum coin and deposit it at the Federal Reserve, where it would count as a government asset and give the country more breathing room under its debt ceiling. Once Congress raised the debt ceiling, the Treasury secretary could then order the coin destroyed.


Mr. Carney, the press secretary, fielded questions about the theoretical tactic at a news conference last week. But the idea is now formally off the table.


The White House has also rejected the idea that it could mount a challenge to the debt ceiling itself, on the strength of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution, which holds that the “validity of the public debt” of the United States “shall not be questioned.”


The Washington Post earlier published a report that the Obama administration had rejected the platinum-coin idea.


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Rebels Agree to Cease-Fire in Central African Republic


Joel Bouopda Tatou/Associated Press


President François Bozizé of Central African Republic, right, who will finish out his term, with Michel Djotodia, a rebel leader, after talks Friday in Gabon.







Bringing a tentative close to an uprising that brought the Central African Republic to the brink of civil war, the government and rebel fighters seeking to oust the president signed a deal on Friday for a weeklong cease-fire that could mature into a peace plan.




Under the agreement, President François Bozizé will not cede power, but a coalition government will be formed and an opposition leader will be named prime minister, according to participants in the negotiations, held in nearby Gabon. Those changes will come only after several other rebel demands have been met, including the release of political prisoners taken by the government during the uprising — their number is unclear — and the departure of soldiers from South Africa and Angola who were sent to bolster the tottering government.


The rebels, an alliance of several groups called the Seleka coalition, swept through the north of the country in December toward the capital city, Bangui. They are still not convinced of Mr. Bozizé’s good will. Should the coalition’s conditions not be met within one week, the cease-fire will not be honored, said Col. François Florian Njadder-Bedaya, a rebel spokesman.


“He’s quite cunning, Bozizé,” Colonel Njadder-Bedaya said. “We want to judge words, speech, with acts.”


A former military officer, Mr. Bozizé seized power in 2003 and has since been elected twice, though there are doubts about the legitimacy of his electoral success. The rebels say he has overseen torture and illegal executions, has not given the country’s north a voice in government and has failed to honor the terms of peace agreements signed with rebels beginning in 2007. Mr. Bozizé’s current term is set to end in 2016, and the agreement signed Friday will allow him to complete it.


Bangui was calm on Friday afternoon. Small groups of government soldiers remain posted in the city, but only at strategic locations; a nightly curfew is not strictly enforced.


In one month of fighting, the rebels seized control of several northern cities and swept south before being stopped at Damara, the final strategic city on the road to Bangui. Hundreds of soldiers from a multinational African peacekeeping force had massed there to prevent the rebels from reaching the capital.


The agreement signed Friday does not require the rebels to retreat from their current positions, and they will not, Colonel Njadder-Bedaya said. Rather, they will await the formation of the coalition government, and will be integrated into the national army, he said.


The coalition government, which participants in the peace talks called a “national unity” government, is to include representatives of Mr. Bozizé’s political group, the Kwa Na Kwa — “Work, Nothing but Work” in Sango, the national language — the opposition, armed groups and civil society.


The National Assembly, which Mr. Bozizé’s opponents dismiss as a corrupt mouthpiece for his government, will be dissolved and replaced by a transitional council. Legislative elections are to be held in 12 months, though the date could be later. Presidential elections will be held at the end of Mr. Bozizé’s term.


“This is a way to accompany Mr. Bozizé toward an honorable exit,” Colonel Njadder-Bedaya said.


The rebels had earlier insisted that there would be no cease-fire without the president’s immediate departure. That demand, however, was rejected early in talks as being unconstitutional.


“Within the constitutional framework, it wasn’t possible,” said Bruno Hyacinthe Gbiégba, a lawyer and the president of an antitorture group who served as an observer at the talks.


Should Mr. Bozizé fail to meet the agreed conditions, the rebels will call upon other nations to intervene, Colonel Njadder-Bedaya said, though this seems an unlikely outcome.


“We’re not in a military situation; we’re in a diplomatic situation,” the colonel said. Still, he added, “I admit to you, things might blow up.”


Christian Panika contributed reporting from Bangui, Central African Republic.



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In gun debate, video game industry defends itself






WASHINGTON (AP) — The video game industry, blamed by some for fostering a culture of violence, defended its practices Friday at a White House meeting exploring how to prevent horrific shootings like the recent Connecticut elementary school massacre.


Vice President Joe Biden, wrapping up three days of wide-ranging talks on gun violence prevention, said the meeting was an effort to understand whether the U.S. was undergoing a “coarsening of our culture.”






“I come to this meeting with no judgment. You all know the judgments other people have made,” Biden said at the opening of a two-hour discussion. “We’re looking for help.”


The gaming industry says that violent crime, particularly among the young, has fallen since the early 1990s while video games have increased in popularity.


There are conflicting studies on the impact of video games and other screen violence. Some conclude that video games can desensitize people to real-world violence or temporarily quiet part of the brain that governs impulse control. Other studies have concluded there is no lasting effect.


Cheryl Olson, a participant in Biden’s meeting and a researcher of the effect of violent video games, said there was concern among industry representatives that they would be made into a scapegoat in the wake of the Connecticut shooting.


“The vice president made clear that he did not want to do that,” Olson said.


Biden is expected to suggest ways to address violence in video games, movies and on television when he sends President Barack Obama a package of recommendations for curbing gun violence Tuesday. The proposals are expected to include calls for universal background checks and bans on assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition magazines.


Obama appointed Biden to lead a gun violence task force after last month’s shooting at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school that left 20 children and six educators dead.


Gun-safety activists were coalescing around expanded background checks as a key goal for the vice president’s task force. Some advocates said it may be more politically realistic — and even more effective as policy — than reinstating a ban on assault weapons.


The Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence said some 40 percent of gun sales happen with no background checks, such as at gun shows and by private sellers over the Internet or through classified ads.


“Our top policy priority is closing the massive hole in the background check system,” the group said.


While not backing off support for an assault weapons ban, some advocates said there could be broader political support for increasing background checks, in part because that could actually increase business for retailers and licensed gun dealers who have access to the federal background check system.


“The truth is that an assault weapons ban is a very important part of the solution — and it is also much tougher to pass,” said Mark Glaze, director of Mayors Against Illegal Guns.


Restrictions on high-capacity ammunition magazines are also seen by some as an easier lift politically than banning assault weapons.


The National Rifle Association adamantly opposes universal background checks, as well as bans on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines — all measures that would require congressional approval. The NRA and other pro-gun groups contend that a culture that glamorizes violence bears more responsibility for mass shootings than access to a wide range of weapons and ammunition.


In a 2009 report, the American Academy of Pediatrics declared, “The evidence is now clear and convincing: Media violence is one of the causal factors of real-life violence and aggression.”


The report focused on all types of media violence. But for video games in particular, the pediatricians cited studies that found high exposure to violent ones increased physical aggression at least in the short term, and warned that they allow people to rehearse violent acts. On the other hand, it said friendly video games could promote good behavior.


A wide spectrum of the video game industry was represented at the meeting with the vice president, including the makers of violent war video games like “Call of Duty” and “Medal of Honor” and a representative from the Entertainment Software Ratings Board, which sets age ratings that on every video game package released in the United States.


The vice president met Thursday with representatives from the entertainment industry, including Motion Picture Association of America and the National Cable & Telecommunications Association. In a joint statement after the meeting, a half-dozen said they “look forward to doing our part to seek meaningful solutions” but offered no specifics.


Biden, hinting at other possible recommendations to the president, said he is interested in technology that would keep a gun from being fired by anyone other than the person who bought it. He said such technology may have curtailed what happened last month in Connecticut, where the shooter used guns purchased by his mother.


The vice president has also discussed making gun trafficking a felony, a step Obama can take through executive action. And he is expected to make recommendations for improving mental health care and school safety.


“We know this is a complex problem,” Biden said. “We know there’s no single answer.”


The president plans to push for the new measures in his State of the Union address, scheduled for Feb. 12.


___


Associated Press writers Lauran Neergaard and Darlene Superville contributed to this report.


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Rookies rule at the Sony Open


HONOLULU (AP) — Two days into his PGA Tour career, Russell Henley was on his way to breaking a record.


Henley putted for birdie on every hole on his way to a second straight round of a 7-under 63, giving him a two-shot lead over fellow rookie Scott Langley among early starters Friday in the Sony Open. He was 14-under 126, which would break the 36-hole scoring record at this event by two shots.


"It's pretty surreal," Henley said.


In the first full-field event of the season, the rookies were leading the way. All they did on another windy, warm day along the shores of Oahu was trade places atop the leaderboard. Langley opened with a 62 and followed that with a 66. That typically would be enough to stay in the lead.


Langley said he tried to stay aggressive, and then he felt he had no choice. He birdied his last three holes to reach 128.


Unless anyone could catch them in the afternoon, they would play together a third straight time, in the last group going into the weekend. The college grads first were linked when they shared low amateur honors at Pebble Beach in the 2010 U.S. Open.


"It's never easy to back up a really good round, I kind of got off to a little slower start," Langley said. "But it was certainly nice to finish the way I did and kind of get back in it with Russ. He played so well, and I was just trying to keep pace as much as I can. To finish that way was really good."


The previous 36-hole record at the Sony Open was 128 by five players, most recently John Cook in 2002.


Among the late starters was Scott Piercy, who opened with a 64 and already was at 10 under for the tournament as he headed to his back nine.


Dustin Johnson won't get a chance to match Ernie Els as the only players to sweep the two Hawaii events. Johnson, who won last week at Kapalua, withdrew after playing nine holes because of the flu.


Chris Kirk made a pair of tap-in eagles — a 5-iron into the wind to 3 feet on the ninth, a 7-iron with the wind to 2 feet on the 18th — for a 62 that put him at 10-under 130 along with Tim Clark, who had a 66.


Pat Perez, working on his new attitude of seeing silver linings instead of black clouds, ran off three straight birdies early in his round for a 63 and was another shot back.


Henley took over the lead for the first time with a shot into 8 feet to a front pin on No. 2, his 11th hole of the day. With birdies on the fifth and sixth holes, it looked as though he might pull away when he stretched his lead to four shots.


Langley came to life with a 7-iron and a 20-foot birdie putt on the seventh, then a sand wedge into the par-4 eighth and more work than he wanted on the par-5 ninth, when he got up-and-down for birdie from near the hospitality tent to the right of the green.


"This feels like a Monday qualifier," Langley said of the low scores, not to mention the company he has been keeping. Langley and Henley were born two weeks apart.


They became friends after Pebble Beach when they flew together to Royal Portrush for the Palmer Cup, and they helped each other on the practice range when their games were in need of repair.


The difference was their road to the PGA Tour.


Henley won a Nationwide Tour event while still at Georgia, and then he won twice on that tour last year to easily finish among the top 25 on the money list.


Langley, a former NCAA champion from Illinois, went through a bad patch last year when he finished last in the second stage of Q-school and had no status. He kicked around the smaller tours, tried a few Monday qualifiers, and then made his way through Q-school and earned his card with two shots to spare.


They're neck-and-neck going into the weekend, both hopeful they ride their momentum.


The surprise might be Clark, who was runner-up at the Sony Open two years ago until he suffered a mysterious elbow injury that cost him a year of trying to figure out what was wrong and how to get better. He is close to healthy now, and it's starting to show.


"Obviously, I've still got to take care of myself and look after it," Clark said. "But at least coming out to the golf course, I feel like I'm pretty much 100 percent."


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Flu Deaths Reach Epidemic Level, but May Be at Peak





Deaths in the current flu season have officially crossed the line into “epidemic” territory, federal health officials said Friday, adding that, on the bright side, there were also early signs that the caseloads could be peaking.




Officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, speaking on a telephone news conference, again urged Americans to keep getting flu shots. At the same time, they emphasized that the shots are not infallible: a preliminary study rated this year’s vaccine as 62 percent effective, even though it is a good match for the most worrisome virus circulating. That corresponds to a rating of “moderately” effective — the vaccine typically ranges from 50 percent to 70 percent effective, they said.


Even though deaths stepped — barely — into epidemic territory for the first time last Saturday, the C.D.C. officials expressed no alarm, and said it was possible that new flu infections were peaking in some parts of the country. “Most of the country is seeing a lot of flu and that may continue for weeks,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C.’s director.


New outpatient cases — a measure based on what percentage of doctor visits were for colds or flu — dropped off slightly from the previous week, to 4 percent from 6 percent. The trend was more pronounced in the South, where this year’s season began.


Dr. Frieden cautioned that the new flu figures could be aberrations because they were gathered as the holiday season was ending. Few people schedule routine checkups then, so the percentage of visits for severe illness can be pushed artificially high for a week or two, then inevitably drop.


Deaths from pneumonia and the flu, a wavy curve that is low in summer and high in winter, typically touch the epidemic level for one or two weeks every flu season. How bad a season is depends on how high the deaths climb for how long.


So far this season, 20 children with confirmed flu tests have died, but that is presumably lower than the actual number of deaths because not all children are tested and not all such deaths are reported. How many adults die will not be estimated until after the season ends, said Dr. Joseph Bresee, the chief of prevention and epidemiology for the C.D.C.’s flu branch. Epidemiologists count how many death certificates are filed in a flu year, compare the number with normal years, and estimate what percentage were probably flu-related.


Many people are getting ill this year because the country is also having widespread outbreaks of two diseases with overlapping symptoms, norovirus and whooping cough, and the normal winter surge in common colds. Flu shots have no effect on any of those.


Spot shortages of vaccines have been reported, and there will not be enough for all Americans, since the industry has made and shipped only about 130 million doses. But officials said they would be pleased if 50 percent of Americans got shots; in a typical year, 37 percent do.


Dr. Bresee said that this year’s epidemic resembles that of 2003-4, which also began early, was dominated by an H3N2 strain and killed more Americans than usual.


Nevertheless, more Americans now routinely get flu shots than did then, and doctors are much quicker to prescribe Tamiflu and Relenza, drugs that can lessen a flu’s severity if taken early.


The C.D.C.’s vaccine effectiveness study bore out the point of view of a report released last year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. It said that the shot’s effectiveness had been “overpromoted and overhyped,” said Michael T. Osterholm, the center’s director.


Although the report supported getting flu shots, it said that new vaccines offering lifelong protection against all flu strains, instead of annual partial protection against a mix-and-match set, must be created.


“But there’s no appetite to fund that research,” Dr. Osterholm said in an interview Friday.


“To get a vaccine across the ‘Valley of Death’ is likely to cost $1 billion,” he added, referring to the huge clinical trials that would be needed to approve a new type of vaccine. “No government has put more than $100 million into any candidate, and the private sector has no appetite for it because there’s not enough return on investment.”


At the same time, he praised the C.D.C. for measuring vaccine effectiveness in midseason.


“We’re the only ones in the world who have data like that,” he said.


“Vaccine effectiveness” is a very different metric from vaccine-virus match, which is done in a lab. Vaccine efficacy is measured by interviewing hundreds of sick or recovering patients who had positive flu tests and asking whether and when they had received shots.


Only people sick enough to visit doctors get flu tests, said Thomas Skinner, a C.D.C. spokesman, so the metric means the shot “reduces by 62 percent your chance of getting a flu so bad that you have to go to a doctor or hospital.”


During the telephone news conference Friday, Dr. Frieden repeatedly described the vaccine as “far from perfect, but by far the best tool we have to prevent influenza.”


Most vaccinations given in childhood for threats like measles and diphtheria are 90 percent effective or better. But flu viruses mutate so fast that they must be remade annually. Scientists are trying to develop vaccines that target bits of the virus that appear to stay constant, like the stem of the hemagglutinin spike that lets the virus break into lung cells.


During the 2009 swine flu pandemic, many elderly Americans had natural protection, presumably from flus they caught in the 1930s or ’40s.


“Think about that,” Dr. Osterholm said. “Even though they were old, they were still protected. We’ve got to figure out how to capture that kind of immunity — which current vaccines do not.”


At Friday’s news conference, Dr. Bresee acknowledged the difficulties, saying: “If I had the perfect answer as to how to make a better flu vaccine, I’d probably get a Nobel Prize.”


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DealBook: European Regulators Propose Overhaul of Benchmark Interest Rate

LONDON — European regulators called for a major overhaul of a benchmark interest rate on Friday, but stopped short of demanding direct regulatory oversight after a rate-rigging scandal.

The recommended changes to the euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor, come after a $1.5 billion settlement by the Swiss bank UBS, where some traders were found to have altered that rate as well as the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for financial gain.

The European Banking Authority and European Securities and Markets Authority are pushing to improve the accuracy of the benchmark rate and increase oversight of how banks submit rates to Euribor, which underpins trillions of dollars of global financial products.

European authorities said the system did not require participating banks to have internal governance structures to manage potential conflicts of interest when submitting rates to Euribor. Also, the rate-setting process is not sufficiently assessed against real banking transactions, according to the report.

The recommendations include cutting in half the number of maturities included in the Euribor process, to seven rates. That would leave the focus only on benchmark rates that are supported by a large number of financial transactions.

The change is in response to a drastic reduction of lending among global financial institutions during the financial crisis that reduced the accuracy of firms’ rate submissions. The fall in actual transactions also led a number of traders and senior managers at global banks to manipulate the rate, according to regulatory filings.

On Friday, European authorities did not demand direct regulatory control over Euribor, which continues to be overseen by the European Banking Federation, a trade body. A recent review of Libor by British authorities recommended regulatory oversight of that rate, as well as criminal charges against individuals trying to alter the rate for financial gain.

Despite widespread calls for authorities to take control over global benchmark rates, the European regulatory bodies do not have the legal responsibility to recommend those changes, according to a European Securities and Markets Authority spokesman.

The European Commission is considering changes to how global benchmark rates are set, and is expected to propose legislation later this year.

Other recommendations outlined by European authorities on Friday included regular audits of the rate-setting process by the European Banking Federation, as well as increasing the independence of the board that oversees Euribor. The trade body said it welcomed many of the changes outlined by the European banking and financial market regulators, adding that it was open to regulators participating in the supervision of Euribor.

Greater scrutiny of the benchmark rate is already having an effect.

As more banks continue to be embroiled in the rate-rigging scandal, a number of financial institutions, including Rabobank Groep of the Netherlands and Raiffeisen Bank International of Austria, have left the panel that sets Euribor. Euribor-EBF, the group that oversees the rate, has said other banks could also pull out of the rate-setting process.

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Kurdish Killings in Paris, and Motive Is a Mystery


Thomas Samson/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images


Members of the Kurdish community watched as the body of one of the three Kurdish women shot dead at the Kurdish Institute was carried away on Thursday in Paris.







PARIS — The three Kurdish women were murdered, two with bullets to the head, the third with a shot to the stomach. It was a carefully planned killing in a nondescript building in central Paris.




When the bodies were found early Thursday, the office was locked from the outside. Three bullet casings were found on the floor. Blood was splattered on the door.


One of the dead women was a founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party — or P.K.K. — a Kurdish separatist group that has waged a guerrilla war against Turkey since 1984. The other two were Kurdish activists who may well have died because they were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.


There were competing theories over who was responsible, and outraged Kurds poured into the street in Paris, blaming Turkey. Officials there said the killings were probably a dispute among Kurds, perhaps intended to derail new peace talks between the government and the P.K.K.’s jailed leader, or to settle a score.


But these were theories. The evidence spoke only to a well-planned job.


“No hypothesis can be excluded at this stage” about the motive, said Agnès Thibault-Lecuivre, a spokeswoman for the Paris prosecutor’s office. Visiting the crime scene on Thursday, Interior Minister Manuel Valls called the killings “intolerable” and said they were “without doubt an execution.”


The shootings took place in the gritty 10th District of the city, near the Gare du Nord railroad station, in a working-class immigrant neighborhood of Turkish kebab shops and African hair salons. The killings prompted outrage, raised fears of violent revenge violence and opened a new chapter in the often murky annals of Kurdish exile life.


The bodies were found around 2 a.m. inside the Kurdish Information Center, which is used to promote Kurds’ political and cultural agendas. Someone would have to have known the office was there; there was no plaque outside. And the front door could only be opened with a digital code or if the occupants buzzed someone in, the manager of the center, Leon Edart, told reporters.


That possibility led to many questions. Did the women know their killer? Did the killer slip into the center behind a welcomed guest? An organization called the Federation of Kurdish Associations in France, representing many of the estimated 150,000 Kurdish exiles in the country, added to the intrigue, saying in a statement that the victims might have been killed with weapons equipped with silencers.


“Why anyone would want to do this is unclear,” said Rusen Werdi, a Kurdish lawyer who knew two of the women. “It was an ambush.”


The bodies, she said, were discovered after friends became concerned about the women because cellphone calls had gone unanswered and none of them had returned home.


Ms. Thibault-Lecuivre said the antiterrorism department of the prosecutor’s office would oversee the investigation.


The authorities confirmed the identities of two of the victims: Leyla Soylemeza, a young Kurdish activist, and Fidan Dogan, the head of the Kurdish Information Center and a representative of the Kurdistan National Congress. News media reports said the third woman was Sakine Cansiz, a founder of the Kurdistan Workers Party.


But for all the intrigue, Ms. Werdi said, it appeared that the target was Ms. Cansiz and that the other two victims might well have been killed because they were with her.


Ms. Werdi said that at least one of the women had been under surveillance by the French police because of her activism. She said that Ms. Cansiz had been keeping a low profile in recent months, and that it was rare for her to be at the information center.


The P.K.K.  is no stranger to infighting and internal strife. Hurriyet, a Turkish daily newspaper, said Ms. Cansiz was “known for her opposition to the alleged head of the P.K.K.’s armed wing, Syrian citizen Ferman Hussein.”


Ms. Cansiz had been in Paris since 2007 after the authorities in Germany arrested and briefly held her before turning down a Turkish request for her extradition. Kurdish activists said she was very close to Abdullah Ocalan, the head of the P.K.K., who has been in prison since 1999. Ms. Cansiz was imprisoned in Turkey in 1979 and freed in 1991, after which they said she became active in the organization. She played a leading role garnering financial and political support for the Kurdish cause in Europe.


Scott Sayare contributed reporting from Paris, and Sebnem Arsu from Istanbul.



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